I mean I'd predict most of this within the next year or so given how things are moving along now.
Microsoft never really pulled out of the mobile market, especially given how good the Surface Pro is. I mean, it doesn't sell nearly as well as the Macbook or iPad Pro, but definitely a solid contender and for the price is actually a reasonable alternative given how fast they are.
And they already get most of their income from Cloud services and specialized contracts. Just recently they were bidding on building the U.S. Army's 'war cloud' or whatever. For most tech companies they don't get money from consumers, just organizations that want to buy the product by the thousands.
Android has the largest OS market share worldwide already too, as seen on
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share
So mobile has already outpaced laptops and of course desktops as well.
So honestly I'd give it no more than three years to develop complete mobile workstations that aren't laptops. If companies decide to start adopting and manufacturing RISC-V devices, that will probably come sooner.
That being said about everything that's ultra-thin, that might be a possibility in ten years. But realistically, those won't really be available to the average consumer because of hefty price tags. Remember how expensive the first computers were in exchange for processing power, at least by today's standards? Almost no one had a desktop for at least a decade until the Apple II came out, and perhaps hobbyists who just wanted to write games on their Z80 Amstrad Pluses. I don't think that will be any different when ultra-thin devices finally come out. I mean, they're only developing folding screens now and if you fold it too fast the whole d*** thing breaks.
But before that happens, we'll need actual consumer-grade graphene, probably. I hear articles almost every month about some 'new affordable graphene manufacturing solution developed by scientists that makes graphene 70x faster than normal' or whatever, and I've been hearing it every month for the last five years. It's going nowhere from what I can tell and is at best a concept, but a neat concept nonetheless.
So yeah, here are my (very general) predictions for the next ten years:
Politics:
Code:
- EU will collapse because Germany will not want to support the Eastern Bloc any more, and Germany funds the whole operation basically.
- Or, at the very least, the Eastern Bloc will be kicked out.
- The world in general will be in complete economic war constantly, primarily between the U.S., Canada, Middle-East, and China. Nothing new there, we're always at basically a stalemate anyway.
- Don't think there will be any major war, though.
- More 'chaos candidates' being voted into power, like Trump was. Whole fiesta.
Technology:
Code:
- Ultra-thin devices, maybe (reliant on graphene development)
- Give me a petabyte microSD card already you f***
- More Mars missions and perhaps using robots to build automated factories or something. No colonization, though.
- RISC-V adoption and manufacturing as an x86 replacement.
- OpenPiton too, maybe, but only for enterprises or massive cloud companies that need to scale up to 250000 cores to handle all the bloat included in software nowadays.
Economy:
Code:
- The whole computer science field is going to collapse like the dotcom bubble because the market is flooded with BOOTCAMP brainlets who can't write fizzbuzz.
- The big tech companies will continue going up in stocks.
- Crypto will still be a thing, but have an even more negative connotation because of govt. propaganda. Most altcoins will likely die as well, especially since most of the 'finished' projects have no real use.
- Cashless society
- Crypto that isn't decentralized will be the common form of currency (band-owned, Facebook Libra, etc.)
Society:
Code:
- Will be under constant oppression by government
- Likely something along the lines of 'not real communism' again, especially when everything goes to shit from economic warfare.
- Third-parties will be silenced more than ever for pushing anything that might make a certain company look bad. Think: the prozac lawsuit after the study was released by a third-party showing that prozac drastically increases suicidal thoughts. Except it'll be about ADHD kids getting f*** up by whatever drugs they're on while their brains are developing.
- More mental issues will be 'diagnosed' to force people to take more meds and sedate the masses.
- The Google and Amazon botnets will be entirely unavoidable.
- This isn't the cyberpunk dystopia I wanted what the f*** I wanted to break into megacorps through sewer tunnels and liberate the people :'(
Yeah, I'm not very optimistic about society or politics as a whole.
That's not to say that we can't turn it around, but this really is the direction things are going right now, and there aren't any signs of turning it around at the moment. We'll be needing a huge revolution of people smashing their Amazon Alexa and Google Home's and telling doctors to f*** off with all the prescriptions.
But I've tried telling people about all the bad shit that those 'virtual assistants' do like recording people while they have sex, or how 23andMe steals your genome data for possible racial/genetic targetting in the future, but people seem to just not care.
Oh well.